The financial markets – what’s occurring 21 March 2022

I feel I tried to convey my sense of bullishness last week…..I hope that came across

SELL THE MYSTERY, BUY THE FACT!!!! —-In relation to Fed Monetary Policy

Markets like certainty, and they are hoping that FED actions may not turn out as hawkish as they sound.

STOCK MARKETS GO UP 80% OF THE TIME!!!

S&P500 HAD THE BEST WEEK IN A LONG TIME. Up 5%

The War is a headwind but seasonality is v positive at the mo.

 

Economy

Retail sales, out last Wednesday, were worse than expected, but earlier months revised higher.

Little economic data in the US due this week.

Fed watch

FED speakers out all week. Bullard is v hawkish – looking for .5% increase in ffr and fast balance sheet reduction. Others on the committee not so much and Powell least of all!!!

 

China

Put in place stock market supports on Thursday preventing a total meltdown.

They seem to be easing covid restrictions.

 

Bonds

Yields are starting to reflect the reality of higher short-term rates.

The yield curve is flat ie all periods from 1 year to 10 years are on or over 2%

Definition: Inversion– when the yield on the 10 year is less than 2 year historically has been a sign of recession. Bond market is not always right however,

30-year, v relevant to housing hit a new high yield.

Three year yield: 2.14% Five year yield: 2.14% Ten year yield: 2.15%

 

Geopolitics

China/Russia/Ukraine———–your guess is as good as mine!!!!!

 

Stock market

My stock bearishness is now being modified, a gent from our Investing Course has convinced me!!,  to start looking for well priced, good companies to Invest in. The March 2020 low looks a good place to buy but only for profit making cos with a good track record. None of the Tech rubbish that sprung up in the past 2 years.

WAS LAST WEEKS CALL

“History was made this week. For only the 5th time ever, the S&P 500 gained at least 1% for 4 consecutive days. This rare occurrence is also quite bullish, as a year later it has been up more than 20% every single time with an average gain of 28.0%.”

However past performance etc etc etc………!!!!!

“first time we’ve seen $QQQ get RSI(5) overbought in 2022… right at what looks like a resistance level… hmm…”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SPOOZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WE ARE ABOVE 20 AND 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGES, PUSHING UP AGAINST 200DMA.

BULLISH!!!

 

“Unlike the break of the downtrend in early February which ultimately failed, today’s broken downtrend was accompanied by a higher high. $SPY”

 

NEVER MADE IT TO PANIC!!!

 

My Chart guy says

This weeks rally was 0 coincidence: #ES_F broke out its 3 month triangle, this is the shot at ending the downtrend Plan Next Week: 4545-65 = target. Pullback likely en route (4465 or 4495). Bulls must defend 4405 at all costs, or its a fakeout. Detail below

 

Colin  01-6644034 0851722729

Risk management is vital.